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A Concept Paper For SEPARATION SAFETY MODELING An FAA/EUROCONTROL Cooperative Effort on Air Traffic Modeling for Separation Standards 20 May 1998 [This page intentionally blank] `TABLE OF CONTENTS vii TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ................................................................................................................................................iii 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE ............................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 SCOPE OF JOINT ACTIVITIES .............................................................................................................. 1-1 2.0 ESTABLISHING SEPARATION STANDARDS................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 SOME HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEPARATION STANDARDS .................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Early Separation Standards ................................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1.2 Target Levels of Safety....................................................................................................................... 2-3 2.1.3 Recent Events ................................................................................................................................... 2-5 2.2 THE SEPARATION STANDARD ESTABLISHMENT PROCESS........................................................... 2-6 2.2.1 The FAA Separation Standard Establishment Process........................................................................ 2-6 2.2.2 The European Separation Standard Establishment Process ................................................................ 2-7 List of References .............................................................................................................................. 2-8 3.0 COLLISION MODELING DEFINITIONS AND RISK METRICS..................................................... 3-1 3.1 DEFINITIONS......................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 RISK METRICS - WHAT IS AN APPROPRIATE METRIC FOR DEFINING THE RISK OF COLLISION? ........................................................................................................................................... 3-2 3.3 THE ACCEPTABILITY OF RISK............................................................................................................ 3-6 Reference ........................................................................................................................................ 3-7 4.0 MODELING CRITERIA....................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 LIST OF CRITERIA ................................................................................................................................ 4-1 4.2 CONSIDERATIONS IN DETERMINING THE BENEFITS OF REDUCED SEPARATION MINIMA .... 4-4 4.2.1 Potential Benefits of Reducing Separation Standards ......................................................................... 4-4 4.2.2 Impact on Sector Capacity ................................................................................................................. 4-4 4.2.3 Impact on Total NAS Capacity .......................................................................................................... 4-5 5.0 APPROACHES TO COLLISION RISK ANALYSIS............................................................................ 5-1 5.1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 HAZARD ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO COLLISION RISK ................................................ 5-2 5.2.1 A Brief Review of Existing Hazard Analysis Techniques................................................................... 5-3 5.2.2 Some Applications of Hazard Analysis for ATC Systems................................................................... 5-6 5.3 PROBABILISTIC, ANALYTIC MODELS................................................................................................ 5-7 5.3.1 Probabilistic/Analytic vs. Numerical Simulation Models ................................................................... 5-7 5.3.2 Examples of Probabilistic, Collision Risk Models ............................................................................ 5-10 5.3.3 Theoretical vs. Empirical Probability Distributions.......................................................................... 5-12 5.3.4 Intervention Considerations............................................................................................................. 5-15 www.aero.cn 航空翻译 www.aviation.cn 本文链接地址：a concept paper for separation safety modeling
